GEOFF BENNETT: Congressman Tom Cole, also of Oklahoma, is serving his 11 term in Congress, and he has seen a lot of changes in the Republican Party during his 21 years in Washington.

We spoke earlier today, and I asked him how the Trump/Vance ticket will affect downballot Republican races.

REP. TOM COLE (R-OK): Well, I think it's a big plus for the Republicans in the House.

I don't think there's much doubt, if the president were to lose, President Trump, then we would lose our majority.

It's just too thin to think we could survive without him.

If, on the other hand -- and the polling has gotten better over the course of the summer -- he wins, then it's hard for me to see how we lose the House.

And I think we will expand our majority.

That would be helpful.

We need a little padding out there so we can -- one or two people can't overturn the whole apple cart.

I think, in the Senate, frankly, I just feel good.

We don't have anything in any danger.

We obviously have great opportunities in Montana and Ohio, where we know President Trump will all likelihood win very substantially.

But I think we have got great shots in Nevada, Michigan, Maryland.

There seem to be more Senate seats coming into play.

So I think it's almost inevitable we will win the Senate regardless of what happens presidentially.

GEOFF BENNETT: Do you see J.D.

Vance as the heir apparent to the MAGA movement?

REP. TOM COLE: I do.

I think he staked out that territory.

I think that was very much on President Trump's mind when he made the selection.

He certainly had an excellent group of candidates to choose from.

It's not lost on me he chose the one that philosophically is probably closest to him and the one that's youngest.

And that tells me he sees a long future for his vice presidential nominee as the head of the movement that he's created.

GEOFF BENNETT: On that philosophical closeness, J.D.

Vance has been vocal in his opposition to continued U.S. support for Ukraine.

He says it's not in America's interest to continue funding an effectively never-ending war.

You were a lead sponsor of the bill to provide U.S. funding to Ukraine, Taiwan and Israel.

How does that sit with you?

REP. TOM COLE: Well, look, I respect anybody's opinion.

And this one has been a divisive issue.

And I certainly respect the opinion guy that I'm going to vote for.

But, look, I haven't changed my view on Ukraine.

I think it's very much in America's interest.

It's not hard to know who the bad guys are here.

It's not hard to know what the stakes are here.

It's also a mistake to say we have done this alone.

There's been an alliance of countries, over a dozen of whom have now given a higher percentage of their GDP and a higher percentage of their budget than the United States has.

Now, that makes a lot of sense because most of them are in the neighborhood.

And I think that's a point President Trump has made repeatedly.

We expect Europe to do more to defend itself.

I think, in this case, you're actually seeing that.

And so I think this is in our interest, but, again, we will have that debate in Washington, D.C., and go from there.

GEOFF BENNETT: In your view, how would a Donald Trump govern if he is reelected?

Because Democrats, as you well know, paint him as an existential threat to the great American experiment.

REP. TOM COLE: Well, I don't think he is.

I think Democrats have misdescribed who he is.

I think this president will be a very strong president.

I think he will probably be much better equipped to govern this time than he was last time.

The four years of experience makes a difference.

I think you see it in everything from the campaign to the policy pronouncements.

I think, again, his goals are going to be pretty much the same., secure border, robust economy, peace around the world, strong military.

So I would expect him to do the kinds of things he's laid out already on the campaign trail.

GEOFF BENNETT: That recent Supreme Court decision that afforded presidents broad immunity, would that embolden President Trump, who has shown a willingness to really obliterate boundaries that have served as guides and guardrails for past presidents?

REP. TOM COLE: I tend to look at -- what he tends to do is, if he tells you he's going to do something, my experience with him is, he means it.

And he is going to do everything within his power to reach the goals that he's laid out, whether it's, I'm going to change the Supreme Court or we're going to build a wall or whatever it is.

And you can agree or disagree with the policy.

That's fair enough.

But you better take him seriously, because he is going to pursue it.

I think you're going to see a robust use of executive power, but I don't think it's going to be anything outside the normal American history.

Strong presidents use executive power.

And it's up to Congress and the courts to keep them in check.

And, frankly, historically they have done a pretty good job of doing that.

GEOFF BENNETT: I got to say it's remarkable to hear a member of Congress defend the president's use of executive power.

I would think a member of Congress would want that power reserved for the legislative branch.

REP. TOM COLE: I would love to have had it when Joe Biden had it, but it didn't work that way.

And nobody was concerned about that.

I have disagreed vehemently with ending the Keystone pipeline, with the actions on the border.

All my colleagues in Congress did.

That still was within the realm of his authority to do.

I think President Trump will use his authority aggressively.

Again, that's not much different.

President Obama talked about a phone and a pen.

We have presidents that have misused executive authority terribly, I mean, FDR, and putting 120,000 Japanese Americans in internment camps, Andrew Jackson, who forcibly removed Indian tribes from historic areas in violation of treaty and lost a Supreme Court case on it and still ignored the Supreme Court.

So these things do happen in American history, but I would actually tell you they happened less under Donald Trump than they have happened under some other presidents.

GEOFF BENNETT: In addition to being a member of Congress, you're also a trained historian.

You have served in the Congress since 2003, more than 20 years.

The Republican Party has changed dramatically since then.

How do you track that evolution and the impact of it?

REP. TOM COLE: Parties do change over time, and that tends to be a good thing.

They usually are changing in response to changing demographic and political circumstances.

I mean, there was time, obviously, when the African American community was heavily Republican.

The civil rights movement and really beginning in FDR's presidency began to change that.

And they said, this is a party that creates more opportunity for me, and it's more focused on me.

I think we now are seeing a great shift among working-class Americans of all races and ethnicities that the Democratic Party has become sort of imprisoned by elites and rigid thinking, and they're not thinking very much about us.

And so I think you see that movement working in the last several years.

Trump sensed it and took advantage of it ahead of most people.

So, again, over time, the one thing I will tell you about political parties is they reflect the demographic reality underneath them, and I think that's what's going on with the Republican Party.

GEOFF BENNETT: Democrats at the moment don't share that same level of confidence.

President Biden, as we sit here and talk, is facing increasing pressure from Democratic leaders in Congress to withdraw from this race.

Would Republicans rather run against a Biden/Harris ticket or have Kamala Harris atop the Democratic ticket?

REP. TOM COLE: Well, I don't think there's going to be a great deal of difference, in the sense that, since Vice President Harris has been the vice president here, been enthusiastically supportive of President Biden's policies and initiatives, she's going to take responsibility and ownership of that.

And I don't think she will -- she would try to back away from it, but she certainly can't.

So we're going to be running against the record of this administration, whether it's President Biden or Vice President Harris heading the ticket.

So whoever the Democrats choose, that is their choice.

I respect that.

It's been an interesting process to watch.

I have never seen anything where an incumbent president who had already effectively won the nomination might be forced out.

I mean, it's just unprecedented, but it speaks of both desperation and chaos on the other side.

And that's usually a good thing if you're in a competition.

If the other person's desperate and changing horses this late in the game, it suggests they don't have a lot of confidence in their own team and their own outlook and their own record.

Because, at the end of the day, this is going to be a referendum on the Biden administration.

And they don't seem very confident in that right now.

GEOFF BENNETT: Congressman Tom Cole, thanks so much for joining us.

We appreciate it.

REP. TOM COLE: Thank you.